DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/25 11:28
Grains Mixed at Midday
Trade is narrowly mixed across the board at midday in active trade.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow 40 points lower. The
interest rate products are mostly lower. The dollar index is 2 points higher.
Energies are lower with crude down 0.55. Livestock trade is firmer for cattle
and hogs. Precious metals are higher with gold up $8.70.
Corn trade is flat to 2 cents higher at midday with trade finding some light
buying after early two sided trade. Rains could slow the remaining harvest in
the Corn Belt starting this afternoon which could add some support into
midweek. Ethanol margins remain positive which should continue for the balance
of the month; this will support corn on breaks. Basis should remain under
pressure in many areas with good harvest activity coming into today with corn
just about back to an average pace at 61% complete vs. 62% on average. On the
December contract support is at the $3.45 1/2 20-day after slipping below the
10-day at $3.50 which are just below at midday. The 50-day at $3.38 is viewed
as major support; it is the lowest major moving average right now. Resistance
is up at the $3.59 1/4 3-month high then the $3.63 100-day.
Soybean trade is mixed in active trade as with trade struggling to sustain
strength today. Meal is flat to $1 higher with oil 20 to 30 points lower as veg
oil prices take a breather. Good export numbers and fund buying in beans and
oil should continue to provide support with China buying another 516,000 metric
tons today. Harvest pressure is limiting upside but should fade as we hit the
homestretch for soybeans. The weekly progress report listed harvest progress at
76%, same as average. Brazilian weather has improved for good planting
progresses and early crop development, but forecasters have mixed ideas on
forward forecasts. On the November soybean chart support is at the 200-day at
$9.79, then the 10-day and 50-day $9.70-73. Resistance is at the $10 level,
then the 100-day up at $10.23.
Wheat trade is mixed to mostly higher at midday with two-sided trade seen so
far, with winter wheats showing the most strength this morning. The dollar
remains near multi-month highs with light strength this morning. Weather
concerns may build with the reduced acreage in the U.S., and dry weather in
much of the west, but for today there was limited concern with the extended
forecast hinting at better chances for rain. The first condition report pegged
the crop at 59% good to excellent, and 7% poor to very poor with 79% planted
vs. 82% on average, and 60% emerged vs. 62% on average. On the Kansas City
December chart, we slipped below all major moving averages on Monday, so the
20-day at $4.14 is now resistance and the lowest major moving average, with
trade right at that area at midday. Support is at the $3.97 October low.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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