DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/20 11:30
Grains Mixed at Midday
Soybeans are the leader at midday, wheat is mixed and corn is slightly lower.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are sharply higher with the Dow index down 260
points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 18 points
higher. Energies are mixed with crude up $1.00. Livestock trade is mixed with
cattle sharply lower. Precious metals are lower with gold down $10.
Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents in fairly quiet trade at midday. Ethanol margins
are under some light pressure, but should remain fairly stable. Basis should
remain stable with field work slowing farmer movement. The ongoing weather
pattern looks to slow planting progress this week in many areas, while the
northwestern part of the belt should make good progress. The weekly export
inspections were strong at 1.068 million metric tons. Weekly crop progress is
expected to show planting moving into the 10%-15% complete range. On the chart,
we are above the 10-day, at $3.77, for the first time in April. The 20-day at
$3.82 is nearby resistance with the $3.95 100-day major resistance. December
futures closed above $4 with resistance now at $4.07 1/2, the 20-day moving
Soybean trade is 8 to 11 cents higher at midday, with meal $4 to $5 higher,
and oil 20 to 30 points higher. The South American progress should continue to
make additional beans available on the world market at a discount to the U.S.,
but improvement in Chinese values should add some support. The weekly export
inspections were soft at 147,939 metric tons. On the chart, May beans have
support at the $9.63 10-day, then the recent low at $9.44 1/2, with resistance
is the 20-day at $9.70 which we have moved above at midday, then the 50-day at
Wheat trade is flat to 6 cents higher across the three contracts at midday.
The stronger dollar will likely create selling pressure if sustained, but we
have backed away from the highs. Moisture remains forecast for much of the
winter wheat belt, while spring wheat growing areas remain pretty dry, which
should be reflected in advanced planting progress today. There is a cold threat
for the west again in the near term as well. The rains should provide a little
bump for the winter wheat conditions as well. The weekly export inspections
were better at 564,502 metric tons. The May KC contract has chart resistance at
the 10-day moving average at $5.37, and support at the low printed last week
just above $5.05.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne
and a registered Trading Adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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