DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/24 11:28
Corn, Beans Lower at Midday
Slow midday trade with wheat down around a nickel, corn down 2 and beans
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 65 points.
The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is steady. Energies are
lower with crude down 0.40. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals
are higher with gold up $2.
Corn trade is 2 cents lower at midday which has us at the low of a very slow
3 cent trading range so far. Outside markets are providing limited direction,
the trend of the week is down, so we may be starting to see some long
liquidation here at midday. The USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum this week has
provided limited meaningful news, rather confirming our comfortable supply
situation is expected to remain in the year ahead. Granted weather could always
change that, but the demand side of the equation remains good. This should
limit downside around the low side of the trading range. Conference sessions
today discussed the large and growing livestock population that will continue
to keep demand for corn strong. On the May corn chart support is at the $3.69
50-day, then the $3.64 100-day. Resistance is at the $3.76 20-day, then the
$3.79 10-day moving averages.
Soybean trade is mixed at midday with new crop November a penny lower and
nearly March and May contracts up fractionally. Meal is near $1.70 a ton lower
and soybean oil is up 22 points. Soybeans tried to rally, were up around a
nickel, but have faded at midday. The weekly trend is lower with futures moving
to a one-month low, but we are holding at lower support levels. The trading
range has only been 7-8 cents but if we get below support this slow day could
turn active this afternoon. Demand news remains good, supply news remains
negative with a big South American crop coming in that may provide late-day
harvest pressure. The May 200-day and lowest major moving average is at $10.20;
this is viewed as key support then the $10.01 3-month low. Resistance is at the
Wheat trade is 1 to 6 cents lower across the three markets with light
spillover pressure from corn at midday. The moisture in the winter wheat areas
has been welcome and noted for our lower midday trade. The weekly sales number
yesterday was under a half million tons which is not getting much attention.
The large domestic and world carryover stocks were a highlight of the wheat
news this week along with stressed farm incomes. The May Kansas City wheat has
support at the $4.61 200-day moving average and resistance at the $4.73 10-day
then the $4.87 seven-month high printed one week ago.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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