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DTN Midday Grain Comments     12/09 10:59

   Beans, Corn Higher at Midday; Wheat Mixed

   Soybeans lead trade higher at midday ahead of the December USDA report.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 60. The 
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 55 points higher. 
Energies are higher with crude up 0.50. Livestock has is mostly lower. Precious 
metals are mixed with gold down $9.


   Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher in quiet midday trade ahead of the WASDE 
report at 11. Spillover strength from energies and the soybean trade is helping 
add support as well as some light short profit taking after the negative day 
yesterday. Ethanol futures have edged higher at midday helping to support 
margins. The WASDE report is expected keep production numbers unchanged with 
minor changes to carry out with the average guess at 2.43 billion bushels and 
range of 2.364 and 2.584. Chart support is at the $3.53 20-day, then the $3.50 
1/4 low printed yesterday. Resistance is the recent high at $3.64 then the 
five-month high at $3.69.


   Soybean trade is 7 to 8 cents higher at midday with buying picking up during 
the day session with support from weather and demand ahead of the report. Meal 
is $5 to $6 higher, and oil is 25 to 35 points lower. Brazilian crop estimates 
are rising even as weather issues linger for South Brazil and Argentina, which 
may have some production ideas lower in Argentina. The focus on weather will 
intensify into December. The dollar strength will hurt exports with early 
production from South America coming soon. The USDA announced 132,000 metric 
tons of soybeans sold to unknown. The monthly report tomorrow is expected to 
show limited changes with the average carryout guess at 469 million bushels. On 
the January chart the 20-day at $10.22 is now support with resistance at the 
$10.38 10-day then the $10.65 four-month high.  


   Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday with the strong dollar limiting 
follow through buying interest after the bounce yesterday. India dropping 
import duties until March which should help bolster additional demand. Lower 
temperatures will have to be watched with limited snow cover but moisture has 
improved for some areas with the recent systems, especially in the eastern part 
of the winter wheat belt. This for sure appears to be limiting selling in wheat 
which is at some low historic prices. Drops around zero or lower that can cause 
winter kill with much of NW Kansas hitting that area. The demand for protein 
will continue to be key market mover on spread trade, and the Southern 
Hemisphere harvest continues to move along well with Argentina and Australia 
seeing good yields. On the report, carryout is expected to be 1.14 billion 
bushels, steady with last month. On the Kansas City March chart support is at 
the $3.99 3/4 contract low printed Wednesday, resistance is at the $4.09 10-day 
moving average which is the lowest major moving average. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at 
Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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