DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/23 11:16
Grains Mixed at Midday
Corn and wheat are near unchanged, with soybeans lower.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures up 69. The
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 400 points lower.
Energies are mixed with crude down $0.40. Livestock trade is mostly lower.
Precious metals are higher with gold up $12.
Corn trade is flat to 2 lower at midday with quiet trade to start the week,
with $3.70 holding so far. Buy stops are expected above $3.70, the March close,
which could provide more excitement this morning if we can crack that area.
Argentine weather and forecasts remain on the forefront of market with some
rain for Southern Argentina overnight. The weekly export inspections were
963,987 metric tons. On the March corn chart support is at the $3.62 10-day
moving average with resistance at the $3.70 200-day moving average. The 40%
retracement of the June high to late August low is $3.76 1/4. The high Friday
was a new six-month high; it is 45 cents above the contract low and still 83
cents below the contract high printed in June.
Soybean trade is 7 to 11 cents lower at midday with trade chopping lower
after some early buying with the market trying to sort out the weather
forecast. Meal is $4 to $5 lower, with oil 5 to 15 higher. Weather will remain
the major near term driver with the beneficial rains in the drier parts of
Argentina, with follow up rain needed. The weekly export inspections remain
pretty good at 1.29 million metric tons. On the March soybean chart support is
at the 10-day and highest major moving average at $10.46; resistance is at the
$10.80 6-month high. The next level of resistance would be the $11 area; then
the March futures high last June at $11.35.
Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade continuing to hold near
the recent range. Weather looks drier for the western plains in the near term,
while the dollar continues to hold above 100 on the index, with some weakness
this morning. Weekly export inspections were a bit soft at 276,205 metric tons.
The Minneapolis contract remains more dynamic and has the most room to correct;
it is challenging support at the 10-day and highest major moving average at
$5.67 on the March contract. The March Minneapolis high printed on last week
was exactly $1 above the contract low printed just over 4 months ago. The March
Kansas City $4.43 10-day moving average is holding this morning; notable
resistance is the $4.58 200-day. Support is at the $4.28 100-day moving
DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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