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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/19 11:39

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Grain trade is making new lows with continued selling pressure this morning.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow up 35. The interest 
rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 37 higher. Energies are mixed with 
crude down $0.80. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are lower with gold 
down $8. 


   Corn trade is 4 to 6 cents lower at midday, establishing new contract lows. 
Corn basis has started to weaken a bit more in front of the impending record 
harvest, but is still strong in some isolated locations. Ethanol margins have 
seen pressure this week, but are still strong and blender margins have 
improved. The USDA announced a 375,963 metric ton sale of corn to Mexico, but 
further sales will be needed to generate excitement. On the December contract, 
the support at $3.35 3/4 has been broken, which puts the next level of support 
at $3.24.


   Soybean trade is 8 to 12 cents lower in weak midday trade, with meal $4 to 
$5 lower and oil flat to 10 points lower. Soybean basis is eroding rapidly as 
exporters and processors start to get fresh supplies. USDA also announced an 
additional 1.236 million metric tons sold to China, likely part of the early 
week announcement. Trade put in a fresh low on the November contract at $9.61, 
and additional pressure will likely arise toward the end of the session. The 
next chart support level will be at $9.28. The significance of the September 
stocks report this year is muted with the expectations of a huge record 2014 


   Wheat trade is 9 to 14 cents lower at midday with weak row crop trade, 
strong dollar, and questionable demand continuing to limit trade. The dollar is 
nearing four-year highs on the expectation of interest rates beginning to move 
up, and other worldwide uncertainty. The Southern Plains have received 
beneficial rains this week. Wheat is oversold on the charts with limited chart 
support to mention since we are at our lows. First resistance on the Kansas 
City December contract is at $5.95, the 10-day moving average.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Adviser. 

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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