DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/04 11:19
Grains Mostly Higher at Midday
Soybeans lead trade higher at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock markets are mostly flat with the Dow down 5 points. The
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 10 points higher.
Energies are lower with crude oil up $0.90. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious
metals are higher with gold up $1.
Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade finding some short
covering and light commercial buying overnight. If trade can hold the early
week lows, a range should emerge ahead of next week's WASDE report. Weather
remains non-threatening in the near term, and crop progress showed slight
improvement at 70% good to excellent, and 9% poor to very poor, 90% silking vs.
89% on average, and 29% in the dough vs. 31% on average. Ethanol margins are
receiving a boost from the bounce in energy values. Chart direction remains
down, but we have been more sideways in recent days. On the December chart corn
resistance is in the $3.90 area where we find the 10-day moving average.
Support is at the $3.74 1/2 low printed yesterday then the $3.62 1/2 contract
Soybean trade is 7 to 12 cents higher at midday with good buying surfacing
this morning. Meal is $2 to $3 higher, and oil is 20 to 30 points higher. The
weekly crop progress report showed a slight improvement in conditions at 63%
good to excellent, and 11% poor to very poor, blooming at 84%, 1% ahead of
average, setting pods was 54%, 5% ahead of average. Good weather can add
soybean yield well into September so forecasts should continue to be the most
important market directional indicator in the near term, especially with pod
fill past the halfway point. On the November chart support is the contract lows
at $8.95. Resistance is the 100-day moving average at $9.55.
Wheat trade is flat to 2 cents higher across the three contracts at midday
with support from the firmer row crop trade and the weaker dollar. Exports have
improved the last couple of weeks but world supplies and the strong dollar have
kept the lid on bounces. The weekly crop progress report showed winter wheat
harvest 93% complete vs. 85% on average, Spring wheat was 70% good to
excellent, 7% poor to very poor, and harvest was 8% complete vs. 11% on
average. The rest of the Northern Hemisphere should be picking up harvest on
spring-planted wheat as well which should push exports out of the Black Sea
area. On the September Kansas City wheat chart support is the fresh low at 4.81
with the 10-day moving average resistance at $5.00.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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