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DTN Midday Grain Comments     04/21 11:29

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Trade is steady to slightly higher at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow 5 points higher. The 
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 17 points higher. 
Energies are lower with crude down $1.20. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle 
higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 2.50. 


   Corn trade is flat at midday with about a 4 cent two-sided trade so far. The 
weather forecast should allow for mixed planting progress with Nebraska, Iowa, 
and Illinois looking drier over the next week. Ethanol margins are stable this 
morning with ethanol futures steady to higher while corn values are steady. But 
unleaded futures are moving lower with the crude break so that could pressure 
ethanol before the day is over. Acreage concerns going forward will limit 
downside with December futures briefly slipping below $3.80 this morning. On 
the May chart support is at the $3.54 3-month low with resistance at the $3.62 
20 and 200-day moving averages. 


   Soybean trade is 1 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade finding light 
buying again with two sided trade during the day session. Meal is $1 to $2 
higher and oil is 10 to 20 points lower. South American harvest is on the back 
stretch, and trade may look to discourage US soybean acreage with spread action 
as corn planting should accelerate the next few days. Basis has remained steady 
this week with softer crush margins. The USDA announced 146,000 metric tons of 
soybeans sold to unknown. Support is the 10-day moving average at $9.47, with 
the multi-month low at $9.29 below that, with resistance the 20-day at $9.51 
above that, which we tested overnight.


   Wheat trade is 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher at midday with trade trying 
to stabilize after some continued light selling after the wash out yesterday. 
Wheat open interest hit a new record with the liquidation. The cold threat 
looks to be fading for this weekend with moisture remaining OK for most of the 
winter wheat belt over the next week. The Dakotas look wet enough to keep 
planting slow for now, but progress should be able to catch up in the next week 
in North Dakota. The Black Sea area is showing some near term dryness, but 
concerns remain limited for now, with early estimates of the crop down 7% from 
last year. The dollar index continues to track below 100 for now but is firming 
this morning. On the May Kansas City contract support is at the new low at 
$3.98 3/4 overnight with resistance at the $4.20 20-day moving average. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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